IISER Bhopal: Scientists develops model to predict summer temperatures in India

NEW DELHI: Scientists at the Indian Institute of Science Education and Research (IISER) Bhopal have developed a statistical model that can predict summer temperatures and extended climate anomalies in India, using the weather data from the preceding winter.

The model development and results of the prediction studies have been recently published in the International Journal of Climatology. According to the team, research groups from all over the world are involved in developing models for climate prediction in different time and spatial (regional or global) scales using known data from past and scientific understanding about the physical and dynamic processes of climate evolution.

"With climate change and global warming being increasingly recognized as a threat to the ecosystem, socio-economy and, perhaps, life itself, it is important to understand and be able to predict seasonal patterns for better preparedness," said Pankaj Kumar, Assistant Professor, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, IISER Bhopal. Funded by the Centre government's Department of Science and Technology (DST), the IISER Bhopal team’s model predicts the temperature of an Indian summer season (March-April-May or MAM) using weather data from the previous winter (Dec-Jan-Feb).

The model, apart from predicting the summer temperatures, has also helped in understanding the relationships among various weather parameters and how they have dynamically co-evolved over the past 69 years.

"We have used a multi-linear statistical technique called Canonical Correlation Analysis to predict summer temperatures and understand the relationships among the various weather parameters," explained Aditya Kumar Dubey, research scholar at IISER. The researchers have used parameters such as the sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, zonal wind, precipitation, and maximum, minimum, and average air temperatures from the previous winter, to predict the summer temperatures throughout India.

"We have found that the summer temperature has seen a significant increase, especially in North India, during recent decades," said Kumar who is the lead researcher. The researchers have also shown that the summer temperature predictability is better for South India than North, due to the former’s proximity to the ocean and the greater impact of the sea surface temperature on summer heat in the subcontinent.

"Timely, actionable and reliable climate prediction is crucial for policy making to help manage development opportunities and risks, and for adaptation and mitigation activities," said Kumar on the importance of work such as theirs on predictive climate modelling.

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