Thapar Institute, MoSPI sign agreement to develop AI-based framework for household consumption

Thapar Institute of Engineering & Technology (TIET), Patiala, has signed an agreement with the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), Government of India, to develop a predictive and analytical framework for monthly household consumption expenditure in India.

The research study will use data from the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) to estimate Monthly Per Capita Consumption Expenditure (MPCE) at the national and state levels. It will also analyse household spending patterns and generate evidence that can support poverty estimation and economic planning.

The agreement was signed by Padmakumar Nair, Vice Chancellor, TIET, and R. Rajesh, Additional Director General, Capacity Development Division, MoSPI. MoSPI Secretary Saurabh Garg attended the signing ceremony along with other senior officials from the ministry.

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TIET, MoSPI to use AI for consumption analysis

Under the collaboration, researchers from TIET will work with MoSPI to explore the use of artificial intelligence and data science in official statistics.

The proposed framework is expected to help policymakers understand household consumption trends between survey rounds. Since large-scale household consumption surveys are conducted periodically, a predictive model could provide additional evidence on changing consumption patterns during the intervening period.

The study will focus on household consumption data at both national and state levels. The findings could also support work related to poverty measurement, inequality analysis and economic policy.

Nair highlights research role in policymaking

Padmakumar Nair said the institute is committed to applying its research capabilities to areas that can improve public decision-making.

Nair said, “Official statistics are the quiet foundation on which a nation plans for its people, from poverty estimation to price indices, and it is a privilege for Thapar Institute to bring its research capability to that foundation.”

He added, “Having spent my career at the intersection of engineering, data and human systems, I believe the most meaningful research is the kind that improves how decisions are made for society. Our faculty and researchers will approach this study with the rigour it deserves, and we are grateful to MoSPI for its trust in the institute.”

HCES 2023-24 covered over 2.61 lakh households

The research will build on data from MoSPI’s HCES 2023-24, which covered more than 2.61 lakh households across India.

According to the survey data cited in the announcement, the average monthly per capita consumption expenditure was Rs 4,122 in rural India and Rs 6,996 in urban India.

Household consumption data is used for several important economic measures, including poverty estimation, inequality analysis and updating the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

The proposed predictive framework could help policymakers track consumption trends more regularly instead of relying only on periodic survey results.

Private consumption accounts for 61.5% of GDP

The study comes as private consumption continues to play an important role in India’s economy.

As per the Economic Survey 2025-26 , the share of private final consumption expenditure in GDP increased to 61.5% in FY26, the highest level since 2011-12. The survey also estimated India’s economic growth at 7.4% for the year, with domestic demand supporting growth.

Against this backdrop, analysing how households spend and predicting changes in consumption could provide useful inputs for economic planning.

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TIET focuses on AI and data science

The project will draw on TIET’s work in artificial intelligence and data science. The institute’s research activities in this area include the Thapar School of Advanced AI and Data Science, established in collaboration with NVIDIA.

The agreement is part of MoSPI’s efforts to work with academic institutions and explore innovative approaches, including artificial intelligence, for strengthening official statistics.