IIT Delhi develops COVID-19 dashboard PRACRITI to predict virus spread

NEW DELHI: Researchers at Indian Institute of Technology Delhi (IIT Delhi) have developed a web-based dashboard for predicting the spread of COVID-19 in India.

The dashboard named Prediction and Assessment of Corona Infections and Transmission, or PRACRITI, will give the detailed predictions of COVID-19 cases for the states and districts in India.

The projections are given for a three-week period and the model will be updated on a weekly basis. According to researchers, such a platform will be useful to authorities and healthcare bodies to efficiently plan for future scenarios and resource allocation.

Hariprasad Kodamana, chemical engineering department, IIT Delhi said, “Three weeks ahead district-wise prediction of infections in India provided by PRACRITI can be of immense help for policymakers for planning strategic interventions for controlling COVID-19 spread in India.”

COVID-19 Model

The model is based on computation of “R 0” which is the basic reproduction number and determining its countrywide variability.

R 0 represents the number of people who get infected from a single infected person.

For example, if an active COVID-19 patient infects two uninfected persons, the R 0 is two.

Hence, the key to controlling the spread of COVID-19 in the country is reduction of R 0.

PRACRITI will use the data available from sources such as the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW), Government of India, National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), and World Health Organisation (WHO). Using this data, PRACRITI will provide the R 0 values of each district and state in India.

The predictions

Led by N. M. Anoop Krishnan and Hariprasad Kodamana, this dashboard has been developed by a team of volunteers from IIT Delhi, namely, Hargun Singh, Ravinder, Devansh Agrawal, Amreen Jan, Suresh, and Sourabh Singh.

The model will take into account the predicted effects of different lockdown scenarios within and between districts.

The district and states can use the R 0 measure to decide the control measures they need to take to stop the spread of the disease.

The predictions will be based on a mathematical model that divides the population into four classes, that is, susceptible, exposed, infected, and removed. “Susceptible” people are those who have not been exposed to the coronavirus, “exposed” people are those who have been exposed to the virus, “infected” people are those who are actively infected with COVID- 19, and “removed” people are those who are not the virus-carriers anymore.

The model will also include the effect of movement of population across district and state borders in the spread of COVID-19.

Based on the projected values of R 0 , a detailed district-wise model can be developed for India predicting the number of actively infected people in each district.

The model will also be updated weekly to accommodate various effects due to administrative interventions, virulence of viral strain and change of weather patterns.

IIT Bombay, too, is engaged in a similar exercise and has already found that a lockdown without stepping up testing for coronavirus will not help.

Also read:

• Coronavirus: Protect bats for healthy coexistence, say South Asian scientists
• Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak: Latest Updates

Write to us at news@careers360.com .