BHU researchers predict agricultural drought in lower Ganga basin in near future

NEW DELHI: A team of the Banaras Hindu University (BHU) in a study has predicted that the lower Ganga basin could experience agricultural drought in near future due to decreasing mean rainfall.

The BHU team included professor RK Mall and PhD scholar Pawan Kumar Chaubey, both from the Mahamana Centre of Excellence in Climate Change Research (MCECCR) at the Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development of the university.

The team explored new possible hotspot regions for future urban flooding due to the increasing pattern of heavy rainfall. They have called the policymakers for timely efforts to manage the excess or less water situations.

Mall said, “Global warming increases the risk of hydro-climate extremes such as floods and droughts worldwide. The increasing rate of atmospheric heat increases the water content, which is the leading cause of extreme events. The widespread variability in extreme events has affected man-made and natural systems.”

The study also showed that the changes in the hydroclimate extremes under low to high-emission scenarios of the 12 best models of coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) climate model, he added.

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The study read that the frequency of extreme rainfall is expected to increase over the Western Ghats and northeast river basins, while an increase in heavy rainfall intensity (14.3%) is projected over the upper Ganga and Indus basin. Also, approximately 4%–10% of the heavy rainfall is projected to increase over the western part of Indian River basins during the near (2021–2040) and mid (2041–2060) future. Due to the intensification of extreme rainfall, Western Ghats, Indus, West, and Central Indian River basins will be highly vulnerable. Major cities like Mumbai and Pune, situated in the west-flowing river basins, would be at a high risk of urban flooding due to the increasing future precipitation extremes.

The lower Ganga river basin is found to experience a decrease in monthly mean precipitation of approximately 7 to 11 mm/day in the near future. India's Eastern Ghats river basins were found to have decreased approximately 20% in daily precipitation, however, in the far future, it is projected to increase approximately 15%.