US Student Visa: Universities could see fall 2025 intake drop by 1.5 lakh over uncertainties, says report

US Student Visa News: A new report by the Association of International Educators (NAFSA) has predicted that the count of international students joining US universities in their fall intake is likely to drop by 30-40%. In absolute terms, 1,50,000 fewer international students are likely to join in fall 2025.

This could lead to a 15% drop in the total number of international students in the country, warns the report, and a loss of USD 7 billion in revenue.

In Fall 2024, the United States saw a record number of international students. Just the 2023–24 academic year saw a record high of 1,126,690 international students enrolled in US institutions, as per the Open Doors 2024 report by the Institute of International Education (IIE) and the US Department of State. According to the SEVIS by Numbers 2024 report, there were roughly 4.2 lakh Indian students in the US in 2024 and as per the latest data from the Indian bureau of immigration, there are 3.72 lakh Indian students in the US .

In 2023, a record 1.3 lakh Indians were granted US student visas; in 2024, that count was lower at 99,169 but still higher than that of any other nationality.

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Of the 1.1 million (11 lakh) international students in the US, 22% were college students who had been granted extensions for ‘optional practical training’ (OPT), says the NAFSA report. But the number of students on OPT extensions is also falling.

US Student Visa Pause: The main problem

The main reason NAFSA cites for this expected drop is the problem with US visa processing. The US State Department had paused visa interviews from May 27 to June 18, 2025, for students planning to begin classes in August or September. “Student visa interviews were paused during the peak issuance season for students seeking to enroll in a US institution this fall,” says the report. During this period, consulates in countries like India, China and Nigeria offered few or no visa appointments leaving many students unable to get visas on time.

On top of that, new visa rules now require extra security checks , including screening of students’ social media accounts . This has led to processing delays.

The number of F-1 student visa approvals dropped by 12% between January and April 2025, and by 22% in May compared to the same month in 2024. Modeling suggests June could see declines of 80–90%, if current trends continue, says the report.

US travel bans

An executive order issued on June 4, 2025 imposed visa restrictions on nationals from 19 countries – India is not among them – with speculation that 36 more may be added. NAFSA says this could further reduce the number of international students.

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The NAFSA report also states, the worst impact may be felt in states like California and New York, where thousands of international students study. Each of these states could lose more than $1 billion. Other states, such as Texas, Illinois, Florida, and Massachusetts, may also lose hundreds of millions of dollars.

NAFSA is urging the US government to take quick action. It wants the State Department to speed up visa appointments for international students. It also wants the government to exempt students from travel bans, so they are not stopped from coming to the US.