IIT Madras study warns renewables may overtake fossil fuels only by mid-2050s

A new study by Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Madras has raised concerns about the pace of the global energy transition, warning that renewable energy may not overtake fossil fuels until the mid-2050s under current trends.

The researchers say that only in more aggressive scenarios, where investments and policy support are significantly stepped up, could renewables become the dominant energy source by the late 2040s. The study comes at a time when countries are pushing to meet net-zero targets by 2050.

IIT Madras points to gap between climate goals and reality

While renewable energy capacity has grown rapidly in recent years, fossil fuels still account for the bulk of global energy use and emissions. The researchers say this gap between climate targets and actual progress remains a serious concern.

Jitendra S. Sangwai said, "The transition to renewables is not just an environmental imperative, it is an economic and geopolitical one. Our study shows that the technological pathways exist, but the world is not yet investing at the speed or scale required. The gap between ambition and action remains dangerously wide. What we need is not optimism, but urgent, coordinated, and well-funded action."

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IIT Madras flags investment needs and delayed timelines

The study looked at different growth scenarios and found that, at the current pace, renewables may cross the 50% mark in the global energy mix only between 2047 and 2053. That’s later than the 2050 net-zero deadline.

A faster transition is possible, with the timeline moving up to the mid-2030s, but only if there is a major push in funding and global coordination. The report also notes that meeting targets set at the conference of the parties will require immediate action, including doubling investments in renewables and significantly upgrading power grids and storage systems.

IIT Madras calls for broader approach beyond renewables

The official press release reads, “a crucial insight from the IIT Madras study is that renewable energy alone is insufficient to achieve net-zero by 2050. The researchers stress that fossil fuels, particularly coal and oil will continue to play a significant role in the global energy mix for at least the next two to three decades, especially in rapidly developing economies.”

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It highlights the need for a broader approach, including carbon capture, utilisation, and storage (CCUS) technologies, advanced energy storage solutions, improved energy efficiency, and modernised power grids to manage the variability of renewable sources.